Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
Basic
11
Ṁ513Jun 23
63%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question resolves positively if, between December 11, 2021 and January 1, 2023, representatives of the Government of the Russian Federation announce or acknowledge that Russia has invaded Ukraine, or if any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that the Russian Federation has invaded Ukraine. These announcements must be describing events which took place (at least in part) during the same period, from December 11, 2021 to January 1, 2023. Areas of Ukraine already occupied (officially or de facto) by Russia as of December 11, 2021, will not trigger resolution.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will Ukraine be an official member of NATO by 2025?
62% chance
When will Russia invade the Ukraine?
[Metaculus] Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
59% chance
Will there be a major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict in 2022?
37% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
50% chance
Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
39% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
50% chance
[ACX2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
50% chance