[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Basic
5
Ṁ31562026
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question resolves a Yes if after March 22, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that a terrorist attack using an aerial drone led to at least one injury or death in the United States.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?
18% chance
[Metaculus] Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?
80% chance
[Metaculus] Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US see a large-scale riot in 2023 or 2024?
50% chance
"Will a major US political figure be killed or wounded in an assassination attempt in 2023?"
67% chance
[Metaculus] Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avia...5N1 globally before 2025?
55% chance
[ACX2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way...before January 1st, 2025?
50% chance
[Metaculus] Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?
50% chance